I was writing this up last night when I took a break and went tripping happily through my blogroll. One of the things that struck me was this very short post by Shawn Macomber. In it, he offers his unqualified support for the candidate who would embrace the “MAYBE We Can, But We Still Probably Shouldn’t” slogan. Of course, I laughed and agreed. In a way, that’s exactly what I’m arguing for (though I’m not sure Macomber would agree). The difference is that I want inactivity by design rather than by temperament--the candidate who would use that slogan won’t be winning the office, but we might maneuver a man into office who would be an accidental inactivist. Someone who might want to accomplish great things, but who will be so stymied by the political battles that he has to fight that he doesn’t end up doing much of anything.

This is a message for Republicans and libertarians who lean toward the conservative side of the fence. It’s a painful message, but it’s one that needs to be spoken so that we understand what we are fighting for in the upcoming election. Just as importantly, we can decide what we’re aiming for over the next presidential term.

We’re going to lose. We’re going to lose big. Even if we win the presidency, we’re going to lose. We’ll lose sharply in the House and in the Senate. Worst of all, we are losing the minds of the citizens of the United States of America. In fact: not only are we losing, but we have lost. That is not a defeatist message at all; it’s an honest assessment of where the supposed party of conservatism finds itself at the end of eight very tough years.

War was brought to our shores and the long struggle that followed is far from over. Katrina battered us even as it exposed the folly of trusting the government to solve the worst of our problems. While the economy is far from the disaster that Democrats submit (a group of people who obviously don’t remember the Carter years with anything resembling clarity), there is no doubt that our country’s fiscal policies are proving themselves short-sighted and potentially disastrous.

We have a lot of ground to make up. With the right strategies and the right leaders, the Republican party can find its way again. But it won’t be this year.

Let’s be honest, folks: the best we can hope for in 2008 is the inactivist president. The president that either by design, by necessity, or by the prodigious bureaucratic mess that is Washington DC won’t bring us any new big ticket items, won’t accomplish much of anything outside of holding the line on taxes and spending, and who will stay out of our way as we go about the business of living.

Just say no to universal health care. Just say no to fixing Social Security with huge tax increases. Just say no to expanded entitlement programs. Just say no. Inactivity in the Oval Office might allow us a moment to sit back, breathe a little, and figure out what to do next.

While conservatives think that their distrust of McCain is a sign that Americans are crying out for a renewed and truly conservative Republican party (as opposed to the big government “conservatism” of the Bush family), I don’t agree. People aren’t joining the Obama revolution because they want smaller government; they’re joining because they think that more government is the answer to their problems. That isn’t to say that we should sit back and accept bigger government and our new Democratic overlords; it’s to say that we need to be honest about what Americans are looking for right now and what our best hope for the next four years might be. Because the truth of the matter is that Americans are rushing to embrace the big government political alternatives right now, and that should make us a touch nervous.

McCain would be the accidental inactivist president--not particularly conservative, but not so hugely harmful as either alternative. Hell, if we’re really lucky, he might even cut a government program or two.

It is a damned shame that none of the remaining candidates is bound to bring us a good energy policy, Social Security privatization, significant decreases in government spending (far more important than tax increases right now), or even the kind of leadership that the United States could really use. Yep, it’s a shame, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to commit political suicide just because I’m cranky about my options. Unless he picks a VP who cannot be trusted that close to the White House--someone who actually makes McCain the worst possible option--then I’ll be voting for the guy who I believe can hold the line while we regroup.

Because we need to regroup. In the “marketplace of ideas,” right now, conservatism as a philosophy is losing. Moving forward, how does conservatism start winning again? Or are we starting a long, slow slide to the same level of public legitimacy as the Libertarians? Because as much as that crew is passionate about their beliefs, in the fabled marketplace of ideas, they have failed in a big, dramatic way for a very long time. While we find a way to avoid that fate, we need someone to stand up and take the hits while we work to persuade the country that the worst offenses of the Bush years weren’t representative of the philosophies of conservatism. I think McCain can be that guy and I think he’ll do the job in good faith.

The most important thing to remember right now is that McCain isn’t Obama. For all the over-the-top talk to the contrary, McCain isn’t Obama.

McCain, facing a phenomenally unfriendly congress, won’t be able to bully his way to big tax cuts, big spending decreases, or the kind of comprehensive immigration changes that red-meat conservatives are looking for--not that he necessarily would, but he certainly won’t be able to pull off any miracles. but he could well act as the only speed bump to an economically ruinous new universal health care mandate or Social Security “fix.” He could be the veto president, the guy who sits back, smiles, and says no.

As the blue haired bridade’s tight, wrinkly grip on Social Security and a buffet of government subsidized drugs goes so far to prove, once the politicians start handling one of our needs it is nearly impossible to pull us away from their “generosity.” That is to say, once we have a health care mandate or a nationalized program of some kind, government control of health care will only grow and expand until citizens are at the mercy of Uncle Sugar’s limited resources. I want a president who won’t let that happen and I happen to like McCain’s ideas on the subject far more than I do Obama’s or Hillary’s.

This dream of the inactivist president is one that we accomplish by design, though, not by luck. Luck could bring us President Obama with the friendliest House and Senate that a president could ask for--not to mention the good will of an indulgent main stream media who might be more likely to overlook the foibles and follies of a messianic Obama than even a resurgent Hillary. Luck is funny that way.

My old mentor, a Special Forces medic and a hell of a good man, used to say that luck is no substitute for good planning. So let’s get to planning.

It’s strange to say this, the GOP needs John McCain right now. At least, as Americans and as conservatives, we need him far more than we need either an Obama or a Clinton presidency. For all that we yell, scream, and gnash our teeth, his bravery could serve us well as a bulwark against the tide of social programs, spending, and general mayhem that will come with President Obama. He may not accomplish much, but McCain may well save us from the worst of the left--and that would be no mean achievement.

It’s time to pull together and find a way to win this election; once that’s done we can look forward to the next mid-term elections and do our best to find ways to make up some ground. We need new leaders who will not only act well on our behalf, but will ably bring our message to the rest of the citizenry. McCain can give us, in the most hopeful way that I can express, four years to start identifying those leaders. Even better, he’ll make it a little easier to fight the battles that are coming up--important battles that we would have almost no hope of winning with the kind of political power that comes from a Democrat in the White House, Democrats in strong control of congress, and a media fawning over the president. 

Barr isn’t going to win and neither is Ron Paul; vote for them if you need to, but don’t imagine that they will end up winning the office. McCain can win and offers the only hope that we have to avoid what I imagine would be a nightmare presidency: an activist president backed up completely by the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.