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Sunday, September 30, 2007

Diagnosing the Broncos

The Broncos lost again--as most people expected. This time, at least, the loss was to one of the league’s best teams.

The Broncos got off to a good start against the Colts, scoring the first ten points of the game and rushing for well over 100 yards in the first half. The Colts, being the Colts, got themselves right back into the game with smart, almost mistake-free play. Meanwhile, the Broncos made a few costly, unforced errors that kept them from getting back ahead.

So, what’s wrong with the Broncos? From the least important to the most important, these are the things that I think are wrong with my team this year.

1. Special Teams
Throughout the first four games, special teams has been a problem. Missed field goals, uneven punting (although Sauerbrun seems to be hitting stride in these last few games), a mediocre return game, and soft coverage on kickoffs that have given opposing teams great field position have combined to put the Broncos in some pretty tough spots. These have hurt, but they aren’t the biggest part of Denver’s losses--especially since much of the worst of it came in the first two games which the Broncos won.

2. Passing Game
The Broncos have a great set of receivers. Even with Javon Walker not playing today, the Broncos two Brandon are both top flight. Add to that the fact that Cecil Sapp, Selvin Young, and Nate Jackson can all catch the ball, too, and you have a reasonable set of receivers. In fact, the Broncos have a decent passing game by most measures. The problem, though, is that the young Cutler can be counted on to give up the ball once a game. And his interceptions only seem to come in two situations: when the Broncos are in scoring position or when the interception puts the opposition in scoring position.

For all the praise of his poise, Cutler has had some brilliant mistakes in these first four games. His interceptions have lead directly to a ton of points for Broncos’ opponents; they’ve also messed up some vital scoring opportunities that might not have won games, but certainly would have made those games a little different. On top of that, his pressured attempt at a lateral to Selvin Young earlier in the year almost lost a game; if it wasn’t for Young’s quick-minded save, the Broncos would be 1-3 instead of 2-2.

I still think that Cutler will mature into one of the better quarterbacks in the league, but he is young, inexperienced, and not quite so poised as we might hope. In fact, if Jake Plummer had made some of those decisions, the local media would have torn him apart. I have to imagine that the honeymoon will be over soon if he doesn’t come up with a game sans painful error soon.

3. Defense
This should be obvious. The defense gave up some good players over the off season because they wanted to change the “defensive philosophy.” The change hasn’t gone so well.

Run defense is nearly non-existent. Pass defense has been solid, but has also failed to come up with the kind of turnovers that a Dre Bly/Champ Bailey secondary would be expected to have. It didn’t help, today, that stalwart John Lynch wasn’t on the field (aside: didn’t he look like he was being groomed for a coaching position when he was on the sideline today, though?)--but the pass defense simply hasn’t been as impressive as I’d expected. Part of that might be the lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Give people quarterbacks like Manning too much time and even good pass defenses will usually let someone loose.

The worst part has been watching opposing teams convert long third downs almost at will. If the defense could stop opponents and give the offense a shorter field, we might see our boys start winning the war of field position. We might even see them score a few more points.

The Broncos have had reliably horrible starting position the whole season and that isn’t wholly because of the bad coverage on kickoffs. The defense simply isn’t doing their job; whether the talent on the field simply isn’t there, the players aren’t executing well, or the defense scheme is merely crap, I couldn’t say. I’m hoping someone on the Broncos defensive staff can find a clue, though. Otherwise this really could be an unpleasant season for a team that should be better.

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