I left a comment in response to comment #24 over here because of a post that I read here (thanks for the link, Rob!), but I didn’t want to deprive people of the opportunity to disagree with me here.

So, here goes:

“(Unfortunately I really don’t see McCain picking Paul…although honestly it’s absolutely the very best thing he could do.)”

Why? Because Paul will bring that extra 4% of the vote that he’s been missing? Or, maybe, because it would establish his bona fides with the anti-war folks? Or, perhaps, you were thinking that it would bring in extra white supremacists? Nah, can’t be that, he’ll already get the “I ain’t votin’ for a black man” block by default.

No, no, I know, it’s because the gold standard hordes were just dying to find a reason to believe that McCain was the guy to make their wishes come true.

Yeah. That would really blow it open.

Whatever anyone thinks of Ron Paul, not only would it not be the very best decision that McCain could make for VP, it would be a ludicrous proposition. They don’t have much in common and Paul won’t make McCain into a viable candidate for the libertarians, anti-war activists, or any of the others that have rallied to Paul.

Which is okay: frankly, he doesn’t need those folks to win the election. He needs to woo the conservative base without losing the independents--that will be tough since movement conservatives are in a mood to fight and he’s not a particularly conservative candidate. Moving too far right, though, will lose his natural constituency: moderate Republicans and independents who admire his “maverick” brand.

If Obama is the nominee on the other side--and he is--then McCain has an uphill battle to winning the presidency. If Hillary had been the candidate, I think he would have chewed her and Bill up, spit them out, and taken the White House by a huge margin. But Obama isn’t an unlikable, arrogant shrew, he’s just a stealth lefty waiting to unleash a speedy financial doom on the country’s economy.

We can talk bad about Bush all we want, but an Obama presidency will be a much more painful thing for conservatives and libertarians--not always for the same reasons, but the results will be like slow torture. Expansive new social programs that will dwarf the Bush errors (the pill bill will look tiny compared to whatever flavor universal health care Obama and a friendly congress tosses on our backs), for example.

The next four years could be brutally painful.

Of course, for libertarians and Democrats, the pain might be just as pronounced with a McCain White House.

Which goes to show that when you’re a libertarian, you just can’t freakin’ win. Poor bastards.

Play ball.