Thursday, July 21, 2005
Another Terrorist Strike in London
This time, though, it looks like it wasn’t nearly as serious.
Three London Underground stations were evacuated at midday Thursday, and the London police commissioner confirmed that four explosions occurred in the subway and on a bus. The Fire Brigade was investigating a report of smoke at one station.
Emergency services personnel were also responding to some sort of incident on a bus in the Hackney neighborhood.
[...]
Some witnesses said they heard gunshots at the Warren Street stop but according to Sky News, police believe those noises were actually detonators going off for bombs that didn’t explode
While there are obvious superficial similarities, the apparent, consistent failure of the bombs to do as much damage as the 7/7 attacks raises a question: copycat? Is this a case of some unaffiliated group that took the last attack as inspiration in launching their own coordinated assault? That the explosives failed--again, consistently--speaks of a less skilled bomb maker.
Of course, if that speculation is wrong, and this was the work of the same organization, then the footage and the remainders of the unexploded devices could provide a wealth of knowledge as well as living “martyrs” to track down.
Either this was a failed copycat attempt or, potentially, a huge miscalculation on the part of a terrorist organization. (A toast to their failures!)
Either way, London must be feeling a bit twitchy this morning; attacks using similar tactics coming two weeks after the original attacks must leave people feeling a bit underprotected.
Quick Update: Now, having read down all the way to the bottom of the article I had just linked, I note this as the very last paragraph:
The concern among U.S. officials in these situations is whether there would be legitimate follow-up attacks by the same group responsible for the July 7 bombings, or “copy cat” incidents, of lesser severity and effectiveness.
Second Update: The sense that this isn’t the same group seems to be shared by quite a few people. For example, read this that I found through Michelle Malkin’s roundup of reactions.
Further Updates: I do hope that the people captured will provide useful information. And Europhobia has a collection of good links on the story.
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Comments & Trackbacks
It could be the same group, but maybe they’ve lost their best bomb builders to arrest or flight from justice. Or perhaps the detonaters didn’t want to be involuntarily suicided like the last bunch and they tampered with the bombs to give themselves some time to get away.
Regardless, it’s telling that every attack is about 10 times less deadly than the last. 3000 for 9/11, 400 (I think) for 3/11, 40+ for 7/7, and now I’m not sure this attack killed anyone at all.
I think that we’re lucky that it was less effective. Although there does seem to be a trend in evidence there, I think the trend is an illusion. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if something came along soon that was more effective, at least, than the last tube bombing.
As for the other part, there are a ton of possibilities. One of the things that makes it seem that it was a professional organization (if you can call groups like al queda “professional") is the timing of the thing. Still, it’s a major step down in professional effect.
I seriously doubt we’re just getting lucky. I think we’ve imprisoned, killed, or driven underground so many terrorists that we’ve really hampered their ability to coordinate effectively. They’re attacks on the west are getting less ambitious and less successful, and even the suicide bombers in Iraq and Israel are getting sloppy. Why’d they have to start recruiting women to be splodeydopes? Why have they starting getting high before going on a bombing run?
I think it’s because we’ve arrested their leaders, the smart and charismatic ones, so recruiting has hit the skids. I also think we’ve passed the point where some terrorist wannabes are noticing that it’s just not working. We’re not terrorized. And if 3000 dead in a couple hours isn’t enough to frighten us, then why bother?
It could be wishful thinking, but I think we’ve either broken their will or we’re reaching that point. I sure hope so, or we’re going to hear more stupid shit about nuking Mecca and implications that Islam is not only the cause of terrorism, but that it’s beyond reform.
Again, it could be wishful thinking, but I have to believe that if Christianity could reform, so can Islam.
Keep working to convince me; I like your view better than mine.
Seriously, though, I think you have a point, but I’m still thinking that their ability to attack us hasn’t been as diminished as you’re thinking. Remember, it took them nearly a decade between attacks on the WTC--and the second time is when they got it right. I think that they are a little more convicted and patient that you are giving them credit.
There is also no doubt in my mind that you are at least somewhat correct: we have hampered their efforts to some extent by knocking out large parts of the leadership.
Can militant Islamists reform? Yeah, I think they can, too. I just think that it’s a tough sell with people who are exceptionally resistant to change and outside influence. I think the best thing we can hope for in the shorter term is to convince them that (as you noted) terrorism doesn’t work--it doesn’t achieve the desired end, and it isn’t even coming close to deterring us from hitting back hard.
Beyond that, convincing countries like Syria that they face just as much danger from harboring terrorists is another of the grand goals in minimizing the threat of terror. If you don’t want Uncle Sam knocking on your door and filling your sky with things that go boom, you have to play nicely in hunting down terrorists.
I think we’ve made great strides in getting at least a moderate level of compliance from those governments, but we still have a long way to go before blowing people up with suicide bombers and homemade explosives ceases to be the most favored tactic of the terrorists themselves.
I’m just wondering what happens if they try the same trick in, say, New York on the subway or Chicago on the El.