Kerry Might Win (And it Wouldn't be a Complete Disaster)

I'll be voting for Bush, and a second Bush term is, in almost every way, preferable to a Kerry presidency in my book. The reality of the situation is that Bush might not win this election, though.

The election is a dogfight, and the polls (even the ones that aren't as biased as the LA Times poll from last week) show just how evenly split the voters are on the subject of who they want to lead the country for the next four years.

How do I see the candidates? I see Bush as something like Reagan with far less charm and far less fiscal restraint (for some people, hearing fiscal restraint and Reagan in the same sentence probably brings sputtering and visions of deficits, but those deficits were mostly in the name of deal-making in which Reagan's foot soldiers got tax cuts and military spending needed to meet his highest priorities: economic expansion, strengthening of the military, and maneuvering the Soviets into their own economic difficulties). I see Kerry as being very Clintonian, but without the scandals and completely devoid of charisma.

Kerry is no far-left wacko who would impose 100% taxes on all income over $100,000 per year. He isn't a complete fool who would completely abandon our interests in Iraq and Afghanistan as soon as he's taken oath. And I would like to believe that he isn't the kind of fool who would roll back all of the Bush tax cuts in that first year, leading us right back into a recession.

What I would expect from Kerry is a modest increase in taxes, a slight reduction in the deficit forecast (coming not from those tax increases, but from an expanding economy putting more money in government coffers--a situation that would result no matter which man is voted into office), and a few new social program proposals. I expect a modest expansion of the military and a commitment to more of the smaller conflicts that Clinton used without the commitment of troops to larger scale actions that Bush has used (effectively) over the last few years. I expect a moderately protectionist international trade policy that doesn't differ strongly from Bush's in anything but rhetoric.

What I don't expect are continued reforms to make the tax code simpler or fairer. I don't expect any new proposals concerning Social Security reform. I don't expect an aggressive diplomatic and military progression in the War on Terror. In this area, I expect him to be very much like Carter--continuing some of the Cold War policies of his predecessors, but pursuing them with a measure of apathy, and leaving us neither markedly worse nor better in the struggle than when he took office.

That is to say, if Kerry takes office, I don't expect the end of the world. I won't vow to travel to New Zealand in prediction of some massive downfall of the United States. I expect that it will be a mostly non-eventful presidency in which not too damn much important happens unless the terrorists manage to strike US soil again (which is always possible). The sad part about a non-eventful presidency is that so many opportunities are missed.

What would the world look like if former President Clinton had been more aggressive in his dealing with terrorists during his term? What would our economic outlook be in four decades if our next President were strong enough to bull through Social Security reform and privatization? What will the situation look like in the Middle East in twenty years without a President willing to expend military and diplomatic energy aggressively pursuing a policy of liberalization and non-tolerance for terrorism?

A Kerry presidency will likely mean a lot of missed opportunities, but won't mean the end of our nation. It won't be a presidency reminiscent of Carter, where unfocused international and domestic policies really did almost bring the nation to a breaking point of sorts, but more like Clinton without either the best and worst of that presidency.

Of course, I also predicted that when I voted for President Bush, his would be an uneventful presidency.

Shows what I know, but wait until you see what I have to say about the prospects for another term for Bush...

Update: Of course, it might be an awfully funny looking presidency...

Posted by zombyboy at June 15, 2004 11:48 AM | TrackBack