Primary Question (Update)

The biggest question remaining after today's early poll results have been considered is when Clark and Lieberman will finally admit that their campaigns are dead. For that matter, the Dean campaign is on life support.

It will almost be a shame to see the end of the Dean and Clark campaigns. While I find aspects of both men to be laughable (at least as politicians), the truth is that their efforts have done a lot to energize and interest the public. They've made this early politicking fun to watch.

Kerry, of course, is feeling in control of events at this point. Frankly, he should. His showing was strong in every state and especially convincing in Missouri.

The Edwards supporters should be feeling energized, as well. It's starting to look unlikely that he'll be the candidate of choice in the end, but his political star is certainly on the rise. While his numbers in Arizona and Delaware were disappointing, he was relatively strong in Missouri, handily won South Carolina (no surprise), and looks to have taken Oklahoma (a nice little surprise).

There are really only two viable candidates remaining: Kerry and Edwards. Dean and Clark are duking it out for third--trading poor finishes in most every state.

For Clark, the only good came from placing second in Arizona, and a slightly disappointing third in Oklahoma (where he was projected to win). Dean had to make do with distant thirds in Arizona and Missouri, and a distant second in Delaware. In none of his contests did he find himself within two digits of the leader.

Dean still has some vague hope for the future, but Clark really needed to show well today.

When Clark and Lieberman drop out, the real question is where their share of the vote is going to go. If I were a betting man, I would guess that Clark supporters will split for Dean (a similar candidate in his support base) and Kerry (a candidate who will probably grab interest and support because of "electability"). Lieberman's smaller percentage will likely split between Kerry and Edwards who will both appeal to Lieberman's more traditional base, with very little gravitating to Dean.

Of course, what do I know? My prognosticating abilities have been pretty poor thus far.

Update: And there goes Lieberman. I still say that, in many ways, he was the class of the bunch.

Second Update: And, of course, the danger in writing something like this when going by the information from exit polls is that something will be incorrect. Clark showed better in Oklahoma than the exit polls indicated and is now in a virtual dead heat with Edwards for the win. That changes the outlook a bit for Clark, but leaves Edwards with a smaller bgoost than a clear win would have given him.