resurrectionsong

July 23, 2003

Democrat Presidential Candidates in Short

I've been reading a lot about the presidential candidates lately, and I think I finally understand the way the field plays out:

Howard Dean has claimed the far left portion of the party and made a Ralph Nader run for president unnecessary.

Dick Gephardt, in a desperate and sad attempt to regain some level of relevance, is trying to out-Dean Dean. It isn't working. He's an early loser.

John Edwards. Yeah. Okay.

John Kerry just wants to remind you that he's a heavily decorated Vietnam Vet. And has he mentioned Vietnam? And then this one time in Vietnam...

And Joe Lieberman is making a mad dash to the right. In fact, he wants to run to the right of Bush on spending, and close to Bush on defense.

Here's the Official ResurrectionSong Prediction for the Presidential Election:

Edwards and Gephardt are also-rans almost from the beginning. Kerry is so tremendously un-charismatic that voters start a grass-roots campaign to keep him the hell out of the public arena.

Dean starts strong, but continued worries about national security make him an unpopular candidate with the center. Voters continue to want someone who will provide a strong defense--Dean is not their man.

Lieberman makes defense a non-issue by being quiet about Bush's continuing war efforts. He attacks on the Bush economic record almost exclusively--and the economy is, potentially, the winning issue.

In sum, watch out for Lieberman.

I do predict that Bush wins a second term, but it's a close race. A steady economic upturn could help, as will steady gains in Afghanistan and Iraq. The big deal, though, will be the sense that we are still vulnerable and still involved in conflict with extremists. I don't think the public will want to give up a leader who has proven himself to be resolute and decisive in defending the nation.

Posted by zombyboy at July 23, 2003 11:56 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Good analysis. I wouldn't be the only Republican to consider Joe Lieberman seriously if he ran to the right of Bush -- Dubya is vulnerable, and I'm not the only Republican a little irritated with runaway spending. Maybe it's time to go back to divided government.

Posted by: IB Bill at July 24, 2003 07:13 AM

Just as long as Dick Gephart doesn't go anywhere near the White House...I don't know if I could stand four years of his eyebrow-less snake-man face on the news every day.

Hey, Zombyboy, want to be my interviewee this week for the Sunday Seven?

Posted by: David Strain at July 24, 2003 08:02 AM

Lieberman can't possibly be nominated by the Democratic party, because it's black base is, unfortunately, by and large anti-semitic. If Lieberman gets the nomination, he simply can't get the black votes he'd need to win. As Veep, he's a fine candidate for the dems. But their divisive politics bites them on the ass with Lieberman as the top candidate.

Posted by: sama at July 24, 2003 09:07 AM

I also heard Lieberman is on the verge of dropping out because he's not drawing in enough campaign contributions.

He also wouldn't get my vote if he ran right of Bush, simply because I can't trust him to stay there.
He was fairly conservative before he ran as Gore's Veep, when he suddenly abandoned several "convictions" to help appeal to the leftier Dems. His "run to the right" now betrays that veer left just 3 years ago. How could we trust that it's not all talk?

If a serious candidate from the Republican party ran right of Bush, promising to cut spending, veto assault weapon bans, strengthen the military, tighten up immigration controls, support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage (like it or not, a majority of Americans want to ban gay marriage), come out firmly against abortion, and toughen up enforcement of the criminal code, he'd (or she'd, cuz Condi could pull this off) defeat a sitting president within his own party, then win the presidency.

Posted by: nathan at July 24, 2003 09:32 AM

Nathan, I worry about Lieberman pulling to the left once he's in office, and I lost a lot of respect for him when he was Gore's running mate, too. I stand by my predictions, though--he's one of the final three standing with Dean and Kerry.

Dean is too left, Kerry is to emblematic of the Democrats as a whole (too contrarian and a seeming lack of ability to communicate vision).

This is also the point where real campaigning starts--and that will change the face of the competition.

Sama, I understand what you're saying, but given a choice between Lieberman and Bush, who do you think African-Americans will vote for? If it's anti-semitism you're looking for, all the "neocon" aspersions play heavily on that sentiment.

David, I'd be honored--and Gephardt is probably my least favorite Dem candidate. I don't really like Dean, but at least he has balls and a vision of his own.

Anyway, you guys can all call me on it when the campaigning doesn't play out the way I've predicted.

Posted by: zombyboy at July 24, 2003 09:59 AM

FYI, your site renders really poorly on Netscape 7.01 on a Mac running OS 9.2. The posts are all at the bottom, below the two sidebars.

Posted by: bryan at July 24, 2003 11:03 AM

Hey, I just checked it on NS 7.02 on OS X, and it's doing the same thing. Crap. Netscape 7 on a PC, too. More crap.

Well, I needed to redesign the darned thing, anyway.

Damned, evil Netscape...

Posted by: zombyboy at July 24, 2003 11:10 AM

Every dem scenario plays well for the Clintons. Remember them? If Hilary were to step in today, she'd be the leading candidate. Even if she doesn't, this current crop of B-rated candidates will have democrats begging her to run in 2008. They'd ask Chelsea, but she's still too young.

It's hard to believe how bad off the dems are right now that a Clinton would be their best shot at regaining the White House. If I were running the DNC, I'd be secretly planning a new reality TV show to find my next candidate. "Run for the White House" is sure to pull in good ratings (half of all advertising dollars would be funneled to the campaign war chest) and produce a more likable candidate.

I personally thought John Edwards had the best shot because he's the only one with an ounce of charisma. Where is he now?

Lieberman has a snobby, whiny, east coast, old man voice that will never resonate in Sheboygan.

Like ZombyBoy, I reserve a special hatred for Gephardt's politics. Any politician with a favorite tactic of scaring old people for votes is no better than televangelists exploiting starving Africans to fund their next crystal-city compound.

Kerry just looks angry and incapable of enjoying himself. Who wants a crabby president? However, did you know he's a Vietnam Veteran? I admire that. Oh yeah, and he likes to pose for pictures in wet suits, but I still liked Al Gore's rolled-up sock photo on the cover of Rolling Stone.

Dean's not even worth mentioning as a lefty. Beyond Vermont and the commy walls of Berkeley, he's laughable and Bush would bitch slap him in head-to-head competition.

Bring on Hilary! Now, that would be entertaining.

Posted by: Opinion Engine at July 24, 2003 12:04 PM

Dean "makes a Nader run unnecessary" only if he gets the nomination. And since he won't...

Actually, the only person who decides whether a Nader run is necessary is Nader, so...

I can't imagine any of the Mudball Nine getting the nomination. But given the dynamic of the primary process, I think Dean is by default the least unlikely to get it. And when he tries (as he will) to run back toward the middle during the fall campaign, the Vast Rove & W Conspiracy will simply run TV ads of video clips and sound bites of Dean saying all the preposterous radical LeftWhack things he's been saying this year.

It won't be pretty, but the popcorn sure will taste good while we're watching.

Posted by: McGehee at July 26, 2003 08:01 PM